From Disruption to Discontinuity

Why the next wave of change will break trends rather than bend them

For decades, leaders have grown comfortable with the concept of disruption. Disruption implied that trends could be anticipated, even if they arrived sooner or more forcefully than expected. Industries were upended, but the lines on the chart still bent in ways that could be plotted.

I am seeing that disruption is now giving way to discontinuity. This is not about acceleration or scale. It is about breaks. Entire trend lines will reset, erasing the predictive value of past data. Technology, climate, geopolitics, and shifting social norms are converging to create moments where the old playbooks have no relevance and the systems that supported them no longer exist.

The Limits of Incremental Thinking

Disruption still allowed for adaptation within the same game. Discontinuity forces leaders to ask whether the game itself has changed. The difference is profound. When ridesharing disrupted taxis, the model of point-to-point transport still held. When autonomous vehicles arrive at scale, the model itself could dissolve, reshaping urban design, insurance, and even personal mobility ownership.

Leaders who rely solely on extrapolation will be blindsided. Preparing for discontinuity requires different habits: scanning for early signals of systemic breaks, rehearsing multiple plausible futures, and building the capacity to pivot when assumptions collapse.

Building Organizational Readiness

Organizations that will thrive are those that treat strategy as a living system rather than a fixed plan. This means investing in decision-making agility, cultivating leaders who are comfortable operating in uncertainty, and embedding foresight capabilities into core functions.

In discontinuity, the advantage goes to those who can recognize the moment when the curve is no longer bending. It is the ability to see the break and respond with intent that will define the next generation of market leaders.